The proportion of China's non-registered copper cathode imports fell below 70% in April! [SMM Analysis]

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       According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total copper cathode imports in April were 250,000 mt, down 19.06% MoM and 11.97% YoY. In March, China imported 308,800 mt of copper cathode, with the unexpected portion mainly coming from Russia (67,900 mt). The decline in April's imports was also primarily reflected in the decrease from Russia, with only 19,500 mt imported.

       Despite Trump's continued tariff hikes in April, the US continued to siphon global copper cathode, with Chile, Peru, and others flowing into the country. Notably, the influx of copper cathode from the DRC to the US has been steadily increasing. Since 2020, with the rise in copper cathode production in the DRC, US imports from the region have also increased after 2023. In March, the US imported a total of 123,000 mt of copper cathode, with imports from the DRC reaching a historical high of 8,700 mt. Continued attention will be paid to the flow of copper cathode from the DRC to the US and whether it diverts volumes from China.

       From a price perspective, due to the limited arrivals of non-registered copper cathode in April, domestic trade prices for non-registered copper cathode also rose. Amid the tight supply of secondary copper, non-registered and non-standard sources were favored by downstream users, and the price spread with SX-EW copper also narrowed significantly.

       Looking ahead to May, domestic trade prices for non-registered copper cathode remain firm, with limited concentrated arrivals. The price spread between SX-EW and non-registered copper continues to narrow. SMM expects copper cathode imports in May to be close to 300,000 mt, but this includes copper cathode returned from LME Asian warehouses, making it difficult for non-registered imports to significantly increase their share.

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